Every change that moves a number, dated and sourced.

July 9 proclamation closes Section 232 aircraft probe with negotiations instead of tariffs; 180-day status update due, per Thompson Hine reporting #

Per trade-bar reporting by Thompson Hine in July 2026, a presidential proclamation issued July 9 concluded the Section 232 investigation into commercial aircraft, jet engines and parts that was initiated in May 2025. Commerce found that the imports threaten national security, but the Secretary recommended no immediate tariffs. Instead, the proclamation directs Commerce and USTR to pursue negotiated agreements with trading partners, with a status update due to the President in 180 days — around January 5, 2027 — and tariff remedies expressly reserved if the talks fail. This is the first Section 232 case of this administration resolved via a negotiation directive rather than immediate duties.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS 88

• Source: Thompson Hine SmarTrade — §232 aircraft findings: negotiations, not tariffs
• Source: J.M. Rodgers — Tariff watch: §232 aircraft, HTS updates, de minimis

Houthi attacks resume in the Red Sea: bulkers Magic Seas and Eternity C sunk July 6-9, 4 crew killed and 11 seized; MARAD issues advisory 2026-006 #

Houthi forces resumed attacks on merchant shipping in the Red Sea after a months-long lull — the first sustained attacks since late 2025. On July 5 a bulker came under gunfire about 30 nautical miles southwest of Hodeidah, with the crew safe; on July 6 the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulker Magic Seas was attacked 51 nautical miles southwest of Al-Hudaydah with drones, missiles, RPGs and small arms — the crew of 22 abandoned ship and the vessel sank, as confirmed by Houthi-released video. On July 7 the Greek-owned Eternity C was attacked by UAVs and RPG-armed speedboats and sank on July 9; 4 crew were killed and 11 mariners, Indian and Filipino, were seized and remained in Houthi custody as of July 10. The Houthis declared a ban on ships they deem 'Israeli-linked,' and US MARAD issued advisory 2026-006 for the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden. Suez containership transits were already about 60% below pre-crisis levels — roughly 26 per week versus about 80 — and Maersk had re-diverted select services via the Cape of Good Hope from March 2026. The sinkings entrench Cape routing, which typically adds 10-14 days of transit plus higher fuel and war-risk premiums on Asia-Europe and Asia-US East Coast lanes.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country All · HS All

• Official source: MARAD MSCI Advisory 2026-006 — Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, Gulf of Aden
• Source: Seatrade Maritime — Eternity C death toll rises as ship reported sunk
• Source: Seatrade Maritime — Magic Seas confirmed sunk in Houthi video
• Source: gCaptain — Red Sea corridor slips back into crisis

Pending review · §122 / §301 · 2026-10-08 #

Verified 2026-10-08: §122 was 10% and expired 2026-07-24. Forced-labor §301 took effect 2026-07-24 at 10%–12.5%, with product exemptions and country-specific combined-rate rules.

Coverage: Export country CN · IN · JP · KR · VN · MX · BR · EU · ID · PK · EC · CA · BD · KH · TH · MY · SG · TW → Import country US · HS 61 · 62 · 63 · 64 · 84 · 85 · 87 · 03 · 04 · 07 · 08 · 27

• Official source: CBP CSMS 67844987
• Official source: CBP CSMS 69326983

USMCA first joint review: US declines renewal, triggering annual reviews and a July 1, 2036 termination backstop #

On July 1, 2026 the three USMCA parties held the mandatory first joint review, conducted virtually under Article 34.7. USTR Ambassador Greer's same-day statement: 'The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form. As a result, the USMCA is not renewed.' The US refusal blocks the automatic 16-year extension to 2042 and shifts the agreement into annual joint reviews each July 1; absent a future consensus to extend, the USMCA terminates July 1, 2036 under Article 34.7's sunset mechanics (the 2036 date is drawn from law-firm analyses, not the USTR statement itself). Mexico (President Sheinbaum) and Canada had both submitted written support for the 16-year extension, having floated an extension to 2042 with 6-year reviews — rejected by the US; Economy Secretary Ebrard has floated a fallback of 10-year extension terms. The agreement remains fully in force meanwhile: tariff preferences, rules of origin and dispute settlement are unchanged, and roughly 85% of Mexican exports to the US still enter tariff-free under USMCA compliance. Mexico's next-phase priority is negotiating down US §232 steel/aluminum/auto tariffs, while Canada's retaliatory tariffs (~C$15.6bn on US steel/aluminum plus autos) remain in place.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · MX · CA · HS All

• Official source: USTR — Ambassador Greer Issues Statement on the USMCA Joint Review
• Source: White & Case — USMCA 2026 Joint Review: US declines to extend, triggering annual reviews
• Source: CBC — U.S. declines to extend CUSMA trade deal
• Source: Mexico News Daily — USMCA 'remains in force,' Ebrard says

Pending review · §122 / §301 · 2026-10-08 #

Verified 2026-10-08: §122 was 10% and expired 2026-07-24. Forced-labor §301 took effect 2026-07-24 at 10%–12.5%, with product exemptions and country-specific combined-rate rules.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS All

• Official source: CBP CSMS 67844987
• Official source: CBP CSMS 69326983

MOFCOM confirms Board of Trade; agriculture agreed in principle under US-China reciprocal tariff reduction framework #

China's MOFCOM moved from general endorsement to formal confirmation of the US-China Board of Trade. At the June 25 regular presser, MOFCOM said the two sides 'have agreed to establish a Board of Trade, under which cooperation such as reciprocal tariff reductions will be discussed'; working teams continue consultations on the tariff-reduction framework, and on Boeing aircraft and US agricultural purchases both sides will 'encourage and guide' enterprises to expand trade. At the July 2 presser, spokesperson He Yadong said both sides 'agreed in principle to include relevant agricultural products under the reciprocal tariff reduction framework,' with purchases based on 'actual demand and market conditions.' Per USTR docket commentary, the mechanism contours involve identifying up to roughly $30 billion of tariff relief each way on 'non-sensitive' goods (MFN or lower rates), with textiles reportedly excluded. Background commitments from the May 14-15 Beijing summit: 200 Boeing aircraft (option to 750) and $17 billion per year in agricultural purchases plus a 25 million metric ton soybean commitment (~$27 billion per year total). USTR comment docket USTR-2026-0430 closes July 10, with rebuttals due July 27. Talks appear to remain at working-team/videoconference level — no Chinese delegation visit to Washington was confirmed in the window.

Coverage: Export country US · CN → Import country US · CN · HS 02 · 07 · 08 · 10 · 12 · 88

• Source: Global Times — China, US agree to establish a trade council to discuss tariffs
• Source: Global Times — China ready to work with the US on agricultural trade
• Official source: Federal Register 2026-11291 — Request for Comments, Board of Trade mechanism
• Source: Skadden — A Rare Opportunity: USTR Solicits Industry Input on Up to $30 Billion in China Import Tariff Relief

MOFCOM publishes supply-chain security investigation measures — a §301-style probe mechanism with 'special fees' instrument #

MOFCOM Announcement No. 24 of 2026 (June 24) published the Working Measures for Industrial and Supply Chain Security Investigations — the implementing procedures under State Council Order No. 834 (effective May 1, 2026). The measures establish a §301-style investigative mechanism on the Chinese side, aimed at foreign countries, regions, or international organizations that impose discriminatory prohibitions or restrictions on Chinese supply chains, with legal basis in the National Security Law, Foreign Relations Law, Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, and Foreign Trade Law. Investigation tools include questioning, document seizure and copying, public solicitation of leads, questionnaires, technical evaluation, hearings, and on-site investigation; Chinese firms can petition MOFCOM in writing with evidence via a private-complaint channel. The outcome menu spans prohibiting or restricting imports/exports of goods, technology and services trade, a novel 'special fees' instrument, and Anti-Foreign-Sanctions-Law sanctions. As a companion enforcement signal, MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 (June 24, effective July 1) created a whistleblower reporting-and-reward mechanism for strategic-minerals export-control violations — unlicensed exports, disguising controlled items as components, third-country transshipment, and providing logistics, customs, e-commerce or financial services to unlawful exports. On June 18, the chairman of a major Chinese precision-optics company was placed under compulsory measures by Shanghai Customs for falsely declaring germanium-containing lenses as 'ordinary optical glass'.

Coverage: Export country CN → Import country All · HS All

• Official source: hzs.mofcom.gov.cn
• Official source: www.mofcom.gov.cn
• Source: Morgan Lewis — Recent China Export Control Actions Signal Active Enforcement for Rare Earths and Strategic Minerals
• Source: wap.eastmoney.com

MOFCOM adds 10 US firms including MP Materials to export control list; MOF bans procurement from 46 US defense companies #

MOFCOM Announcement No. 23 of 2026 (June 22, immediate effect) added 10 US entities to China's export control list: MP Materials Corp, USA Rare Earth, Aveox, Red Cat Holdings, Teal Drones, IMSAR, Jaia Robotics, Ball Aerospace & Technologies, Oshkosh Defense, and L3Harris Maritime Services. Chinese exporters are prohibited from exporting any dual-use items to them; overseas organizations and individuals anywhere are barred from transferring China-origin dual-use items to them; ongoing transactions must stop immediately, with case-by-case MOFCOM approval possible for 'genuine necessity'. It is the first-ever use of the export-control-list instrument against US rare-earth producers — MP Materials fell roughly 13% in June. Beijing framed the action as retaliation for the June 8 US expansion of the DoD 'Chinese Military Companies' (1260H) list. Same day, China's Ministry of Finance banned government procurement of products manufactured by 46 US defense-linked companies (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Missiles & Defense, General Atomics, General Dynamics Land Systems, Boeing Defense, Anduril et al.), explicitly excluding products of US-invested enterprises in China — 56 US entities hit in a single day. Notably, both actions were decoupled from the §301 forced-labor track and tied to the 1260H list, preserving the Board of Trade channel; no new Unreliable Entity List additions in this round.

Coverage: Export country CN → Import country US · HS 28 · 85 · 90

• Source: www.news.cn
• Source: Al Jazeera — China adds 10 US firms, including rare-earth miner, to export control list
• Source: Arnold & Porter — China Imposes Export Control and Government Procurement Restrictions on Designated U.S. Companies
• Source: www.stcn.com

US-Mexico USMCA Round 2 concludes in Washington: rules-of-origin and economic-security progress, seasonal-produce TRQ stalemate; Round 3 set for week of July 20 in Mexico City #

Round 2 of US-Mexico USMCA bilateral negotiations ran June 15-17, 2026 in Washington DC over three days — the round had previously been flagged as June 16-17, and Ebrard's delegation worked June 15-18 including side-meetings. A joint Greer-Ebrard statement marked the conclusion. Progress reported: advanced rules of origin for certain industrial goods plus 'economic security' (limiting China's benefits from USMCA access); conceptual discussions begun on agriculture, labor and environment; steel/aluminum/autos trade discussed; trade-remedy cases addressed, including new duties on Mexican tomatoes and the active strawberry investigation; and agreement to establish a committee reviewing USMCA Chapter 12 (Sectoral Annexes) for regulatory compatibility. The hardest fault line is the US seasonal-produce TRQ demand — Ebrard publicly stated Mexico will not accept seasonal restrictions and would source agricultural imports elsewhere. Greer: 'I think we probably will not resolve all the issues by July 1.' Round 3 is confirmed for the week of July 20, 2026 in Mexico City per Greer's July 1 statement; Greer and Ebrard also met separately on June 19.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · MX · HS 72 · 76 · 87 · 84 · 85

• Official source: USTR — Joint Statement from Ambassador Greer and Secretary Ebrard (June 2026)
• Source: Mexico Business News — Mexico Heads to Washington for Second Round of USMCA Revisions
• Source: AS/COA — Tracking the U.S.-Mexico Talks in the USMCA Review

Supreme Court denies cert in HMTX v. United States — §301 List 3/4A China tariffs stand, 8-year refund litigation ends #

On June 15, 2026 the US Supreme Court denied certiorari in HMTX Industries v. United States, leaving intact the Federal Circuit's September 25, 2025 ruling that upheld the §301 List 3 (~$200bn) and List 4A (~$120bn+) China tariffs imposed via USTR's §307 modification authority. The denial definitively ends the 8-year consolidated 'In re Section 301 Cases' refund litigation — no refunds for the thousands of plaintiff importers. List 3 duties at 25% and List 4A duties at 7.5% are now litigation-proof. The §307 modification authority — the same authority underpinning the pending 60-economy forced-labor and 16-economy excess-capacity §301 actions — carries appellate blessing.

Coverage: Export country CN → Import country US · HS All

• Source: Thompson Hine — U.S. Supreme Court Declines Review of China Section 301 Tariff Challenge
• Source: Nakachi Eckhardt & Jacobson — Supreme Court denies cert in Section 301 China tariffs litigation
• Source: Squire Patton Boggs — Supreme Court ends challenge to §301 modification authority

Pending review · §122 / §301 · 2026-10-08 #

Verified 2026-10-08: §122 was 10% and expired 2026-07-24. Forced-labor §301 took effect 2026-07-24 at 10%–12.5%, with product exemptions and country-specific combined-rate rules.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS All

• Official source: CBP CSMS 67844987
• Official source: CBP CSMS 69326983

USTR opens public comment on US-China Board of Trade mechanism scope & operation #

In early June 2026, USTR published a Federal Register notice seeking public comment on the scope and operation of the US-China Board of Trade — the new bilateral institution announced at the May 14-15 Beijing summit. The mechanism is intended to operationalize ongoing dialogue on balanced and reciprocal trade, including identification of non-sensitive goods that can deliver benefits for US farmers, ranchers, fishermen, small businesses, manufacturers, and workers. Public comment deadline: July 10, 2026. China's MOFCOM spokesperson He Yongqian publicly endorsed the Board of Trade as the preferred negotiation venue, contrasting it with the forced-labor §301 tariff action which MOFCOM opposes. The Board of Trade is the structural complement to the Board of Investment also established at the Beijing summit.

Coverage: Export country CN → Import country US · HS All

• Official source: USTR — Public Comment on Board of Trade Mechanism
• Source: Global Times — China opposes 'forced labor' restrictions
• Source: Tribune India — China urges US to drop forced-labour tariffs, hails Board of Trade

Pending review · §122 / §301 · 2026-10-08 #

Verified 2026-10-08: §122 was 10% and expired 2026-07-24. Forced-labor §301 took effect 2026-07-24 at 10%–12.5%, with product exemptions and country-specific combined-rate rules.

Coverage: Export country CN · IN · JP · KR · VN · MX · BR · EU · ID · PK · EC · CA · BD · KH · TH · MY · SG · TW → Import country US · HS 61 · 62 · 63 · 64 · 84 · 85 · 87 · 03 · 04 · 07 · 08 · 27 · 85

• Official source: CBP CSMS 67844987
• Official source: CBP CSMS 69326983

USTR determines Brazil §301 acts actionable, proposes 25% tariff — statutory action deadline July 15 #

Correction of the earlier record: the Brazil §301 investigation was initiated on July 17, 2025 (FRN 2025-13498) — not in June 2026. What happened on June 1, 2026 was the determination plus proposed action (FRN 2026-11158, published June 4): USTR found Brazil's acts, policies, and practices on digital trade and electronic payments, preferential tariffs, anti-corruption, intellectual property, ethanol market access, and illegal deforestation to be actionable, and proposed an additional 25% ad valorem tariff on certain Brazilian goods — coverage per commentary includes footwear, apparel, and travel goods alongside traditional exports such as coffee, iron ore, wood, pulp, meat, sugar, and ethanol. In-window process: hearing-appearance requests were due June 22; public comments were due July 1, 2026; USTR confirmed a public hearing Monday July 6 through Tuesday July 7, 2026, 10:00 am ET at the USITC. The statutory deadline for responsive action is July 15, 2026 — one year from initiation — making this plausibly the first new §301 tariff to land in July.

Coverage: Export country BR → Import country US · HS 09 · 26 · 44 · 47 · 02 · 17 · 22 · 61 · 62 · 64 · 42

• Official source: USTR — Public Hearing on Proposed Responsive Action, Section 301 Brazil
• Official source: Federal Register 2026-11158 — Notice of Determination (Brazil §301)
• Source: Thompson Hine — USTR in Brazil Section 301: Determination, Proposes 25% Tariffs
• Official source: USTR — Section 301 Brazil investigation page

Proclamation 11032 recalibrates §232 metals derivatives: agricultural equipment cut to 15%, HVAC added, 10% tier for 85% US-content capital equipment (eff. June 8) #

Proclamation 11032, 'Further Adjusting the Tariff Regimes for Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper,' was signed June 1, 2026, with changes effective June 8, 2026 (the reduced tiers run through December 31, 2027). The §232 derivative rate on agricultural equipment — combines, harvesters and similar machinery — is cut from 25% to 15%. Residential-use HVAC systems and components are added to the temporarily-reduced 15% derivative category, and the 15% category is further expanded to mobile industrial equipment (bulldozers, forklifts) when imported from trade-deal countries. A new incentive tier sets a 10% duty rate for capital equipment with at least 85% US-melted-and-poured steel and aluminum content. Under the recalibrated regime, Japan and Korea §232 imports are effectively capped at a 15% total-duty outcome. Duties apply on the full customs value of the goods.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS 72 · 73 · 74 · 76 · 84 · 85

• Official source: White House — Further Adjusting the Tariff Regimes for Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper
• Official source: White House Fact Sheet — President Trump Updates Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum and Copper Imports
• Source: C.H. Robinson — Client Advisory June 2, 2026: Updates to Section 232 tariffs
• Source: Diaz Trade Law — What the June 2026 Aluminum, Steel, Copper Proclamation Means

US-Mexico USMCA bilateral round 1 concludes — three-round schedule locks in #

The first formal US-Mexico USMCA review round closed May 28-29 in Mexico City. Deputy USTR Jeffrey Gerrish led the US delegation (Greer did not personally attend); Marcelo Ebrard led for Mexico. Three core agenda blocks: automotive rules of origin, §232 steel/aluminum derivative boundary conditions, economic security — plus a scope expansion covering medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetic-products regulatory compatibility. Round 2 scheduled June 16-17 in Washington, adding agriculture and 'level playing field' topics. Round 3 set for the week of July 20 in Mexico City — placed four days before the §301 16-economy action target of July 24. Canada absent from this bilateral track.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · MX · HS 72 · 76 · 87 · 30 · 33

• Official source: USTR — US and Mexico Conclude First Bilateral Round
• Source: CGTN — Mexico US conclude first round USMCA talks
• Source: Washington Trade & Tariff Letter — Canada track lags

Pending review · §122 / §301 · 2026-10-08 #

Verified 2026-10-08: §122 was 10% and expired 2026-07-24. Forced-labor §301 took effect 2026-07-24 at 10%–12.5%, with product exemptions and country-specific combined-rate rules.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS All

• Official source: CBP CSMS 67844987
• Official source: CBP CSMS 69326983

Greer + Ebrard joint statement: sector-by-sector USMCA bilateral, first formal round in Mexico City week of May 25 #

On April 20, 2026, USTR Jamieson Greer and Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard issued a joint statement directing teams to advance technical work on economic security, complementary trade actions, strengthened rules of origin for key industrial goods, and collaboration on critical minerals. President Sheinbaum publicly framed Mexico's objective: a specialized steel/aluminum/autos agreement before the trilateral review concludes. Ebrard described the negotiating posture as 'sector by sector,' targeting reduced extra-regional dependence — particularly the 85%+ Asian import share in semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and electronics. The first formal bilateral negotiating round is scheduled for the week of May 25, 2026 in Mexico City. USTR has signaled separately that existing US §232 / §301 / §122 tariffs on Mexico-origin goods stay in place during the negotiation window.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · MX · HS 72 · 76 · 87 · 85 · 30

• Official source: USTR — Joint Statement Greer + Ebrard
• Source: Rio Times — USMCA formal negotiations May 25
• Source: DBBNW — Mexico seeks early steel and auto trade deal with US
• Source: Steel Market Update — USTR says steel/auto tariffs on Mexico will remain

Pending review · §122 / §301 · 2026-10-08 #

Verified 2026-10-08: §122 was 10% and expired 2026-07-24. Forced-labor §301 took effect 2026-07-24 at 10%–12.5%, with product exemptions and country-specific combined-rate rules.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS All

• Official source: CBP CSMS 67844987
• Official source: CBP CSMS 69326983

§232 · EU / Ireland / Switzerland · 15% · 2026-10-08 #

Verified 2026-10-08. The earlier article incorrectly assigned Ireland a uniform 100% duty. That claim and the relocation, investment and consumer-price conclusions built on it are withdrawn. Unverified trade figures, market moves and company outcomes have been removed. The April 2 proclamation covers patented pharmaceuticals and associated ingredients listed in Annex I. Clause 3(a) sets a default 100% rate. Clause 3(c) gives the EU, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland and Liechtenstein a 15% country tier unless a lower clause 3 rate applies. Ireland is in the EU; the proclamation therefore does not support a blanket 100% rate for Irish products. Ireland and Switzerland belong to the same country tier.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS 30

• Official source: White House clauses 3–5; verified 2026-10-08