Every change that moves a number, dated and sourced.

Two weeks into the EU's new steel regime, first-come-first-served quotas are exhausting: Turkey's HRC quota oversubscribed 43% on day one, Indian cargoes stuck at ports facing the 50% duty

Two weeks into the EU's new steel import regime — Regulation (EU) 2026/1384, in force July 1 with quotas cut 47%, a 50% over-quota tariff and a melt-and-pour origin rule, with country allocations set by temporary Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1457 — first-come-first-served quotas are already exhausting. Per trade-press tracking (GMK Center analysis of July 14; SteelOrbis), Turkey's Category 1A hot-rolled coil quota was oversubscribed on day one, with 229,564 tonnes requested against 160,574 tonnes allocated — a 43% overage; Turkey's HRC allocation stands roughly 60% below the prior safeguard level (642,249 t vs 1.59 Mt). India exhausted its quotas for non-alloy/alloy hot-rolled sheets (225,305 t) and stainless bars and light sections (31,765 t), with 3,818 t and 410 t respectively waiting at EU ports facing the 50% over-quota duty. Internationally, Brazil warned of possible retaliatory trade-defense measures, Taiwan reserved its WTO rights, Japan's steel industry called the measures unfair (a quota of roughly 800 kt against average 2022-24 exports of 1.5 Mt), and Ukraine is hardest hit with a quota of about 1.05 Mt against 2.63 Mt of 2025 exports. No formal WTO challenge had been filed as of July 14.

CBP tells CIT it has repaid $86.3 billion of IEEPA tariffs and accepted $121.75 billion in claims as CAPE Phase 3 nears; Section 122 surcharge still collected pending July 24 expiry

In a declaration filed July 13, 2026 with Judge Eaton at the Court of International Trade, CBP reported that as of about July 10 it had repaid $86.3 billion of IEEPA tariffs and accepted $121.75 billion of claims for processing, out of roughly $166 billion collected, with about $130 billion estimated refundable via the CAPE portal. 8,384 approved declarations are stalled on missing banking information. The Liberty Justice Center, working with Neal Katyal, filed a class-certification motion at the CIT in early July seeking refunds for importers whose entries are finally liquidated and thus outside current eligibility. CAPE Phase 3, covering finally liquidated entries, is on track for late July 2026, though the government maintains Phase 3 covers only importers who filed CIT suits; DOJ's appeal of the universal-refund order, noticed June 3, continues at the Federal Circuit. Separately, the Section 122 15% surcharge remains in collection under the CAFC's full stay granted June 11, 2026, with the government's opening appellate brief due in July — the litigation will not resolve before the surcharge's July 24 statutory expiry.

UK-India CETA enters into force July 15, 2026: 99% of Indian exports duty-free into the UK, Scotch whisky tariff cut from 150% to 75%

The UK-India Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and the accompanying Double Contribution Convention both entered into force on July 15, 2026, HMRC confirmed in a trade-tariff notice published July 13. The agreement was signed on July 24, 2025 and completed ratification after a House of Commons debate on February 9, 2026 and a House of Lords debate on March 4, 2026. Under the CETA, 99% of Indian exports enter the UK duty-free, while India removes tariffs on roughly 64% of UK product lines, including salmon, lamb, aircraft parts, machinery and electronics. India's tariff on Scotch whisky drops from 150% to 75% immediately, staging down to 40% over 10 years, with gin cuts similarly staged. The UK government estimates beverage exports to India could rise by 180%, worth around £700 million.

USTR comment window on US-China 'Board of Trade' design and $30 billion tariff-relief scope closes July 10; rebuttals run through July 27

July 10, 2026 was the USTR deadline for public comments on the design of the US-China 'Board of Trade' mechanism and on the scope of up to $30 billion of tariff relief for 'non-sensitive' Chinese imports; rebuttal comments run through July 27 under the docket opened in June. On the agricultural track, Bloomberg reported July 2 — with subsequent July 8 trade-press reporting — that the two sides agreed in principle for the US to end its 10% fentanyl-related tariff and for China to reciprocally drop its 10% retaliatory tariff on US agricultural goods including soybeans and grains, targeting roughly October 1, 2026. As of July 15, however, no announcement from China's Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council has formalized the reduction. China's stated purchase commitments are at least 25 million tons of soybeans per year through 2028 and at least $17 billion per year of US agricultural products; actual new-season bookings so far total only about 200,000 tons. For context, GACC June data released July 14 showed China's exports up 27% year on year — the fastest pace since October 2021 — with shipments to the US up 14%.

China imposes an immediate temporary export ban on helium via MOFCOM-GACC Announcement No. 29, effective July 10, 2026, covering all destinations

China imposed a temporary export prohibition on helium (customs code 2804.29.0010), effective immediately, through MOFCOM-GACC Joint Announcement No. 29 of 2026, issued July 10. The ban covers all destinations, states no end date and provides no exemptions. Its legal basis is the Foreign Trade Law rather than the Export Control Law, and the stated rationale is protecting domestic supply as renewed Middle East conflict disrupts global helium flows; China imports over 80% of its helium. Helium is critical to semiconductor manufacturing as a cooling and purge gas, so the measure lands hardest on chip-adjacent supply chains. It is China's first new trade countermeasure since the June 22 export-control list additions covering 10 US firms and the June 24 supply-chain investigation rules.

USTR concludes July 7-9 public hearings on Section 301 forced-labor tariffs of 10%/12.5% on 60 economies; track due to wrap by July 24

USTR held public hearings July 7-9, 2026 in the USITC main hearing room on the Section 301 forced-labor investigations covering 60 economies, chaired by Megan Grimball and Grace Yanagawa; the Day 1 transcript is posted on ustr.gov. The June 2 proposal (Federal Register notice 2026-11296, published June 5) would impose a 10% additional tariff on 6 economies that have import bans but do not enforce them — Canada, Ecuador, the EU, Indonesia, Mexico and Pakistan — and 12.5% on the other 54, including China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, India and Brazil, with Annex A exclusions applying. The governments of Mexico, India, Jordan, Pakistan, South Korea, Sri Lanka, South Africa and Vietnam defended their enforcement regimes, while the Line Pipe Producers Association and Steel Manufacturers Association supported the tariffs; the American Petroleum Institute opposed, arguing industrial inputs 'have no link to forced labor,' and the Coalition for Fair Trade in Seafood sought higher rates on Vietnamese seafood. Former USTR official Ed Gresser estimated a consumer cost of roughly $100 billion per year. Per Reuters reporting on July 14, the track is due to conclude by July 24 — timed to the statutory expiry that day of the Section 122 15% global surcharge, which cannot be extended without Congress; no extension bill was in committee as of July 15, and the only Section 122 bill moving, H.R.2459, would repeal the authority. Final rates and an effective date have not yet been set.

July 9 proclamation closes Section 232 aircraft probe with negotiations instead of tariffs; 180-day status update due, per Thompson Hine reporting

Per trade-bar reporting by Thompson Hine in July 2026, a presidential proclamation issued July 9 concluded the Section 232 investigation into commercial aircraft, jet engines and parts that was initiated in May 2025. Commerce found that the imports threaten national security, but the Secretary recommended no immediate tariffs. Instead, the proclamation directs Commerce and USTR to pursue negotiated agreements with trading partners, with a status update due to the President in 180 days — around January 5, 2027 — and tariff remedies expressly reserved if the talks fail. This is the first Section 232 case of this administration resolved via a negotiation directive rather than immediate duties.

Houthi attacks resume in the Red Sea: bulkers Magic Seas and Eternity C sunk July 6-9, 4 crew killed and 11 seized; MARAD issues advisory 2026-006

Houthi forces resumed attacks on merchant shipping in the Red Sea after a months-long lull — the first sustained attacks since late 2025. On July 5 a bulker came under gunfire about 30 nautical miles southwest of Hodeidah, with the crew safe; on July 6 the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulker Magic Seas was attacked 51 nautical miles southwest of Al-Hudaydah with drones, missiles, RPGs and small arms — the crew of 22 abandoned ship and the vessel sank, as confirmed by Houthi-released video. On July 7 the Greek-owned Eternity C was attacked by UAVs and RPG-armed speedboats and sank on July 9; 4 crew were killed and 11 mariners, Indian and Filipino, were seized and remained in Houthi custody as of July 10. The Houthis declared a ban on ships they deem 'Israeli-linked,' and US MARAD issued advisory 2026-006 for the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden. Suez containership transits were already about 60% below pre-crisis levels — roughly 26 per week versus about 80 — and Maersk had re-diverted select services via the Cape of Good Hope from March 2026. The sinkings entrench Cape routing, which typically adds 10-14 days of transit plus higher fuel and war-risk premiums on Asia-Europe and Asia-US East Coast lanes.

EU imposes definitive anti-dumping duties of 4.3%–45.3% on Chinese passenger car and light lorry tyres, effective July 9, 2026

The European Commission imposed definitive anti-dumping duties of 4.3% to 45.3% on new pneumatic rubber tyres for passenger cars and light lorries (load index up to 121) from China, announced July 9, 2026, with the regulation published in the Official Journal (L series, 2026/1540) on July 7. The injury findings cite 2024 EU consumption of roughly 330 million units worth about €18 billion, against Chinese imports of 93 million units worth about €2.5 billion — a 28% market share — while the EU tyre industry employs more than 80,000 people across 14 member states. A parallel anti-subsidy (countervailing) investigation into the same product concludes in December 2026, meaning combined duties are possible from that point. In the same week, the Commission opened its first-ever anti-dumping investigation into a Chinese agricultural product — Pekin duck meat, following a complaint by five EU producers, opened July 9, per Borderlex and SCMP reporting. On July 14 the Commission also published its first review of the Foreign Subsidies Regulation, finding it 'fit for purpose' with procedural simplifications planned for autumn 2026.

EU opens consultation on CBAM certificate sale rules: non-tradable certificates via a central platform from February 1, 2027, feedback due August 6, 2026

On July 9, 2026 the European Commission opened a public consultation, with feedback accepted until August 6, 2026, on a draft delegated regulation governing the sale and repurchase of CBAM certificates, the operation of the common central platform, fees, and the platform's interaction with the CBAM Registry. Under the draft, certificates are non-transferable and non-tradable; each carries a unique ID and is assigned exclusively to the purchasing declarant. Declarants place purchase and repurchase requests in the CBAM Registry, and the platform processes the payments. Certificates go on sale February 1, 2027, and the first surrender deadline is September 30, 2027, covering 2026 imports. 2026 remains a data-collection year with no quarterly reports and no certificate purchases; the Q2 2026 reference price of €75.28, published July 6, is the latest price signal.

European Commission sets Q2 2026 CBAM certificate reference price at €75.28/tCO2e

On July 6, 2026 the European Commission published the Q2 2026 CBAM certificate quarterly reference price: €75.28/tCO2e, versus €75.36 for Q1 (published April 7), computed as the weighted average of EU ETS auction clearing prices over the quarter. Publication is quarterly through 2026 and moves to weekly from 2027. Compliance framing under the definitive regime in force since January 1, 2026: the transitional quarterly CBAM reports ended with the Q4 2025 report — there is no quarterly declaration due July 6 and no certificate purchases in 2026. This year's obligations are limited to importers above the 50-tonne/year de minimis becoming authorised CBAM declarants and collecting verified emissions data. Certificate sales open February 1, 2027 on the central platform, and the first annual CBAM declaration plus certificate surrender deadline is September 30, 2027 (postponed from the original May 31, 2027). With the 2026 adjustment factor at 2.5%, the cash impact stays small this year (roughly €1-4 per tonne of imported steel); the price matters mainly for modeling the 2027-2034 ramp.

USTR confirms forced-labor §301 public hearings July 7-9 at USITC — 10%/12.5% proposal unchanged

A USTR press release on July 2, 2026 confirmed that public hearings in the forced-labor §301 proceedings will run Tuesday July 7 through Thursday July 9, 2026 — three days, 10:00 am ET, in the main hearing room of the USITC at 500 E Street SW, Washington DC. Hearings are on the record with no cameras or livestream; a transcript will be posted on ustr.gov and a panel schedule PDF has been published. Written comments close July 6, 2026 at 11:59 PM EDT (dockets USTR-2026-0265 for comments, USTR-2026-0266 for the hearing; appearance requests were due June 22). The proposed action is unchanged from the June 1-2 notice: 10% additional ad valorem for economies with a forced-labor import prohibition, an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade commitment, or a partial regime, and 12.5% for all others — coverage of 59 countries plus the EU, roughly 99.4% of US imports, including a proposed textile/apparel volume mechanism at reduced §301 rates. The target effective date remains aligned to around July 24. Federal Register notice: 2026-11296 (June 5). China's MOFCOM (June 4, June 25, and July 2 pressers) maintains rhetorical opposition — it 'opposes all forms of unilateral restrictive measures... under the pretext of forced labor' — but had announced no countermeasures against this track through July 6.

USMCA first joint review: US declines renewal, triggering annual reviews and a July 1, 2036 termination backstop

On July 1, 2026 the three USMCA parties held the mandatory first joint review, conducted virtually under Article 34.7. USTR Ambassador Greer's same-day statement: 'The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form. As a result, the USMCA is not renewed.' The US refusal blocks the automatic 16-year extension to 2042 and shifts the agreement into annual joint reviews each July 1; absent a future consensus to extend, the USMCA terminates July 1, 2036 under Article 34.7's sunset mechanics (the 2036 date is drawn from law-firm analyses, not the USTR statement itself). Mexico (President Sheinbaum) and Canada had both submitted written support for the 16-year extension, having floated an extension to 2042 with 6-year reviews — rejected by the US; Economy Secretary Ebrard has floated a fallback of 10-year extension terms. The agreement remains fully in force meanwhile: tariff preferences, rules of origin and dispute settlement are unchanged, and roughly 85% of Mexican exports to the US still enter tariff-free under USMCA compliance. Mexico's next-phase priority is negotiating down US §232 steel/aluminum/auto tariffs, while Canada's retaliatory tariffs (~C$15.6bn on US steel/aluminum plus autos) remain in place.

UK's new steel trade measure takes effect July 1 — quotas cut 51%, flat 50% over-quota tariff

The UK's new steel trade measure — announced March 19, 2026, with formal details published June 30 on gov.uk and the UK Integrated Online Tariff — took effect July 1, 2026, replacing the old safeguard (quota plus 25% over-quota) which ended June 30. Duty-free quotas are cut 51% versus the old safeguard, and the over-quota tariff is a flat 50% ad valorem, calculated before other import duties. Coverage spans 20 product categories (hot-rolled coil, coated sheet, organic-coated, tinplate, plate, merchant bar, rebar, stainless bar, wire rod, sections, rail material, gas pipe, hollow sections, large welded tube, other welded tube, cold-worked bar, non-alloy wire, etc. — two more than the old measure). Country-specific quotas go to the EU, India, Korea, Vietnam, Turkey, Japan, the US, Switzerland, and the UAE; Ukraine is fully exempt under FTA preference. The quota period runs July 1, 2026 to June 30, 2027 with quarterly allocation; transitional relief fully exempts goods contracted before March 14, 2026 from the 50% over-quota duty during July 1 - September 30, 2026 (evidence required). Legal basis is the Taxation (Cross-Border Trade) Act 2018 as amended, while the US-UK §232 special arrangement continues separately (UK steel/aluminum at 25%/15% in the US, conditional on UK melt-and-pour). Combined with the EU's same-day measure, over-quota costs in the EU and UK markets are now uniformly 50% for non-FTA exporters including China.

CBP expands CAPE IEEPA-refund module — Phase 2 adds reconciliation-flagged entries, warehouse entries cut off July 7

CBP's CAPE (Consolidated Adjustment for Prior Entries) machinery for IEEPA duty refunds expanded with Phase 2, effective June 29, 2026: CAPE now accepts reconciliation-flagged entry types 01/02/06 where no reconciliation entry was filed. Effective July 7, 2026, warehouse entries will no longer be accepted on CAPE Declarations — they will be rejected on or after that date. Phase 3 is expected in late July 2026. CAPE consolidates IEEPA duty refunds, with interest under 19 CFR 24.36, inside ACE rather than through entry-by-entry reliquidation. It is the refund channel created after the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in Learning Resources v. Trump on February 20, 2026.

MOFCOM escalates Japan export controls — 20 defense-linked entities banned, 20 more on new 'watch list'

MOFCOM Announcements No. 27 and 28 of 2026 (June 29, immediate effect) escalate China's export-control campaign against Japan. No. 27 adds 20 Japanese entities 'involved in enhancing Japan's military strength' to the export control list — including the National Institute for Defense Studies, Japan MOD research centers for ground, naval and air systems (including next-generation fighter F-X/GCAP work), and units of Mitsubishi Electric and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries — banning all dual-use exports to them and third-party transfer of China-origin dual-use items; coverage includes chips, specialty semiconductor materials, and rare-earth functional materials. No. 28 places 20 further Japanese entities (drone makers, nuclear-related firms) on a 关注名单 ('watch list'), a newly deployed lower-tier instrument. This is the second 20+20 batch against Japan in 2026, after Announcements No. 11/12 of February 24, in a campaign begun with Announcement No. 1 (January 6, dual-use export ban to Japanese military end-users) rooted in the Takaichi Taiwan-remarks dispute. Context: the US had asked China (reported June 9 by Bloomberg/Nikkei) to resume rare-earth sales to Japan; MFA spokesperson Lin Jian refused, and June 29 escalated instead. Daiwa Institute estimates a one-year rare-earth cutoff would cut Japan's real GDP by about 1.3% (~JPY 7 trillion).

EU replaces steel safeguard with permanent regime — quota cut 47%, over-quota tariff doubled to 50%

Regulation (EU) 2026/1384, published in the Official Journal around June 26, 2026, replaces the 2018-era steel safeguard (expired June 30) with a permanent mechanism applicable from July 1, 2026. The annual duty-free tariff-rate quota is set at 18,345,922 tonnes — a 47% cut versus the 2024 quota level, benchmarked to a 13% import share of 2024 EU consumption — and the over-quota tariff doubles from 25% to 50%. Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1457 (adopted June 29, OJ June 30, applying July 1 through December 31, 2026) allocates country-specific quotas across 26 product categories: roughly half the quota (~9.17M t) is reserved for FTA partners, countries with a ≥5% import share in 2022-2024 receive country-specific quotas, and the remainder runs MFN first-come-first-served. A melt-and-pour origin declaration obligation (Mill Test Certificate documentation) applies from July 1, 2026, and from October 1, 2027 that data feeds quota allocation — designed to block third-country transshipment circumvention aimed at Chinese overcapacity. The EEA (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway) is excluded from scope and Russia is excluded via the sanctions ban; otherwise the measure applies to all third countries including FTA partners, administered quarterly with within-year carryover but no cross-year carryover. For non-FTA exporters including China this is the tightest EU steel access regime since 2018.

EU tariff commitments under EU-US trade deal take effect July 1 — zero duty on all US industrial goods

The EU's tariff commitments under the August 21, 2025 'Joint Statement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade' completed their legislative path: European Parliament/Council provisional agreement May 20, 2026, Council final adoption June 25, publication in the Official Journal June 30, application from July 1, 2026. The main regulation eliminates all EU tariffs on US industrial goods and grants TRQ/reduced-duty preferential access for certain US seafood and non-sensitive agricultural products — EU importers save roughly €5bn a year in duties — applying through December 31, 2029, with a built-in import-surge safeguard and a suspension mechanism if the US fails to honor its side. A second regulation, (EU) 2026/1461 (signed June 25), extends MFN zero duty on lobster including processed lobster (CN 1605 30 90) to July 31, 2030, with refunds retroactive to August 1, 2025. The US quid pro quo is a 15% tariff cap on most EU goods including autos, and zero or near-zero rates on aircraft, generics, and natural resources. In early May the US had threatened 25% on EU autos if the package was not ratified before July 4; with the July 1 application, the transatlantic tariff war formally de-escalates into an implementation phase.

MOFCOM confirms Board of Trade; agriculture agreed in principle under US-China reciprocal tariff reduction framework

China's MOFCOM moved from general endorsement to formal confirmation of the US-China Board of Trade. At the June 25 regular presser, MOFCOM said the two sides 'have agreed to establish a Board of Trade, under which cooperation such as reciprocal tariff reductions will be discussed'; working teams continue consultations on the tariff-reduction framework, and on Boeing aircraft and US agricultural purchases both sides will 'encourage and guide' enterprises to expand trade. At the July 2 presser, spokesperson He Yadong said both sides 'agreed in principle to include relevant agricultural products under the reciprocal tariff reduction framework,' with purchases based on 'actual demand and market conditions.' Per USTR docket commentary, the mechanism contours involve identifying up to roughly $30 billion of tariff relief each way on 'non-sensitive' goods (MFN or lower rates), with textiles reportedly excluded. Background commitments from the May 14-15 Beijing summit: 200 Boeing aircraft (option to 750) and $17 billion per year in agricultural purchases plus a 25 million metric ton soybean commitment (~$27 billion per year total). USTR comment docket USTR-2026-0430 closes July 10, with rebuttals due July 27. Talks appear to remain at working-team/videoconference level — no Chinese delegation visit to Washington was confirmed in the window.

MOFCOM publishes supply-chain security investigation measures — a §301-style probe mechanism with 'special fees' instrument

MOFCOM Announcement No. 24 of 2026 (June 24) published the Working Measures for Industrial and Supply Chain Security Investigations (《产业链供应链安全调查工作办法》) — the implementing procedures under State Council Order No. 834 (effective May 1, 2026). The measures establish a §301-style investigative mechanism on the Chinese side, aimed at foreign countries, regions, or international organizations that impose discriminatory prohibitions or restrictions on Chinese supply chains, with legal basis in the National Security Law, Foreign Relations Law, Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, and Foreign Trade Law. Investigation tools include questioning, document seizure and copying, public solicitation of leads, questionnaires, technical evaluation, hearings, and on-site investigation; Chinese firms can petition MOFCOM in writing with evidence via a private-complaint channel. The outcome menu spans prohibiting or restricting imports/exports of goods, technology and services trade, a novel 'special fees' (特别费用) instrument, and Anti-Foreign-Sanctions-Law sanctions. As a companion enforcement signal, MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 (June 24, effective July 1) created a whistleblower reporting-and-reward mechanism for strategic-minerals export-control violations — unlicensed exports, disguising controlled items as components, third-country transshipment, and providing logistics, customs, e-commerce or financial services to unlawful exports. On June 18, the chairman of a major Chinese precision-optics company was placed under compulsory measures by Shanghai Customs for falsely declaring germanium-containing lenses as 'ordinary optical glass'.

MOFCOM adds 10 US firms including MP Materials to export control list; MOF bans procurement from 46 US defense companies

MOFCOM Announcement No. 23 of 2026 (June 22, immediate effect) added 10 US entities to China's export control list (出口管制管控名单): MP Materials Corp, USA Rare Earth, Aveox, Red Cat Holdings, Teal Drones, IMSAR, Jaia Robotics, Ball Aerospace & Technologies, Oshkosh Defense, and L3Harris Maritime Services. Chinese exporters are prohibited from exporting any dual-use items to them; overseas organizations and individuals anywhere are barred from transferring China-origin dual-use items to them; ongoing transactions must stop immediately, with case-by-case MOFCOM approval possible for 'genuine necessity'. It is the first-ever use of the export-control-list instrument against US rare-earth producers — MP Materials fell roughly 13% in June. Beijing framed the action as retaliation for the June 8 US expansion of the DoD 'Chinese Military Companies' (1260H) list. Same day, China's Ministry of Finance banned government procurement of products manufactured by 46 US defense-linked companies (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Missiles & Defense, General Atomics, General Dynamics Land Systems, Boeing Defense, Anduril et al.), explicitly excluding products of US-invested enterprises in China — 56 US entities hit in a single day. Notably, both actions were decoupled from the §301 forced-labor track and tied to the 1260H list, preserving the Board of Trade channel; no new Unreliable Entity List additions in this round.

US-Mexico USMCA Round 2 concludes in Washington: rules-of-origin and economic-security progress, seasonal-produce TRQ stalemate; Round 3 set for week of July 20 in Mexico City

Round 2 of US-Mexico USMCA bilateral negotiations ran June 15-17, 2026 in Washington DC over three days — the round had previously been flagged as June 16-17, and Ebrard's delegation worked June 15-18 including side-meetings. A joint Greer-Ebrard statement marked the conclusion. Progress reported: advanced rules of origin for certain industrial goods plus 'economic security' (limiting China's benefits from USMCA access); conceptual discussions begun on agriculture, labor and environment; steel/aluminum/autos trade discussed; trade-remedy cases addressed, including new duties on Mexican tomatoes and the active strawberry investigation; and agreement to establish a committee reviewing USMCA Chapter 12 (Sectoral Annexes) for regulatory compatibility. The hardest fault line is the US seasonal-produce TRQ demand — Ebrard publicly stated Mexico will not accept seasonal restrictions and would source agricultural imports elsewhere. Greer: 'I think we probably will not resolve all the issues by July 1.' Round 3 is confirmed for the week of July 20, 2026 in Mexico City per Greer's July 1 statement; Greer and Ebrard also met separately on June 19.

Supreme Court denies cert in HMTX v. United States — §301 List 3/4A China tariffs stand, 8-year refund litigation ends

On June 15, 2026 the US Supreme Court denied certiorari in HMTX Industries v. United States, leaving intact the Federal Circuit's September 25, 2025 ruling that upheld the §301 List 3 (~$200bn) and List 4A (~$120bn+) China tariffs imposed via USTR's §307 modification authority. The denial definitively ends the 8-year consolidated 'In re Section 301 Cases' refund litigation — no refunds for the thousands of plaintiff importers. List 3 duties at 25% and List 4A duties at 7.5% are now litigation-proof. The §307 modification authority — the same authority underpinning the pending 60-economy forced-labor and 16-economy excess-capacity §301 actions — carries appellate blessing.

Federal Circuit grants full stay pending appeal — §122 15% surcharge collection continues for all importers

On June 11, 2026, the Federal Circuit granted the government's motions for stay pending appeal in State of Oregon v. Trump, Nos. 2026-1804/-1805 — the consolidated appeals from the CIT's May 7 Slip Op. 26-47, which had invalidated the §122 global surcharge under Proclamation 11012. The ruling converts the May 12 administrative stay into a full Nken stay pending appeal: collection continues, now including the three previously injunction-protected plaintiffs (State of Washington, Burlap & Barrel Inc., Basic Fun Inc.), 'pending further order.' The court reasoned plaintiffs suffer no substantial injury because they would receive refunds with interest if they prevail. Briefing is expedited, but no oral argument date was publicly scheduled as of July 6. Practical mootness horizon: the §122 authority expires by statute on July 24, 2026 (150 days from February 24) unless Congress extends it. Rate note — Proclamation 11012 proclaimed a 10% surcharge on February 20, raised to the 15% statutory maximum by the February 22 amendment effective February 24; court documents reference the original 10% figure while the collected operative rate is 15%.

USTR opens public comment on US-China Board of Trade mechanism scope & operation

In early June 2026, USTR published a Federal Register notice seeking public comment on the scope and operation of the US-China Board of Trade — the new bilateral institution announced at the May 14-15 Beijing summit. The mechanism is intended to operationalize ongoing dialogue on balanced and reciprocal trade, including identification of non-sensitive goods that can deliver benefits for US farmers, ranchers, fishermen, small businesses, manufacturers, and workers. Public comment deadline: July 10, 2026. China's MOFCOM spokesperson He Yongqian publicly endorsed the Board of Trade as the preferred negotiation venue, contrasting it with the forced-labor §301 tariff action which MOFCOM opposes. The Board of Trade is the structural complement to the Board of Investment also established at the Beijing summit.

Proclamation 11032 recalibrates §232 metals derivatives: agricultural equipment cut to 15%, HVAC added, 10% tier for 85% US-content capital equipment (eff. June 8)

Proclamation 11032, 'Further Adjusting the Tariff Regimes for Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper,' was signed June 1, 2026, with changes effective June 8, 2026 (the reduced tiers run through December 31, 2027). The §232 derivative rate on agricultural equipment — combines, harvesters and similar machinery — is cut from 25% to 15%. Residential-use HVAC systems and components are added to the temporarily-reduced 15% derivative category, and the 15% category is further expanded to mobile industrial equipment (bulldozers, forklifts) when imported from trade-deal countries. A new incentive tier sets a 10% duty rate for capital equipment with at least 85% US-melted-and-poured steel and aluminum content. Under the recalibrated regime, Japan and Korea §232 imports are effectively capped at a 15% total-duty outcome. Duties apply on the full customs value of the goods.

USTR determines Brazil §301 acts actionable, proposes 25% tariff — statutory action deadline July 15

Correction of the earlier record: the Brazil §301 investigation was initiated on July 17, 2025 (FRN 2025-13498) — not in June 2026. What happened on June 1, 2026 was the determination plus proposed action (FRN 2026-11158, published June 4): USTR found Brazil's acts, policies, and practices on digital trade and electronic payments, preferential tariffs, anti-corruption, intellectual property, ethanol market access, and illegal deforestation to be actionable, and proposed an additional 25% ad valorem tariff on certain Brazilian goods — coverage per commentary includes footwear, apparel, and travel goods alongside traditional exports such as coffee, iron ore, wood, pulp, meat, sugar, and ethanol. In-window process: hearing-appearance requests were due June 22; public comments were due July 1, 2026; USTR confirmed a public hearing Monday July 6 through Tuesday July 7, 2026, 10:00 am ET at the USITC. The statutory deadline for responsive action is July 15, 2026 — one year from initiation — making this plausibly the first new §301 tariff to land in July.

USTR proposes forced-labor §301 action — 60 economies, up to 12.5% ad valorem

USTR's June 1-2 Federal Register notice moves the forced-labor §301 investigation (60 economies, hearings closed early May) into a concrete proposed-action stage. Up to 12.5% ad valorem on goods from named economies. Sixty economies split into two tiers — 54 'failed to impose and effectively enforce a forced-labor import prohibition' (China, India, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil et al.) and 6 'have a prohibition but failed to enforce effectively' (Canada, Ecuador, EU, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan). Written comments due July 6; public hearings start July 7. Targeted effective date aligns with the §301 16-economy action target July 24.

US-Mexico USMCA bilateral round 1 concludes — three-round schedule locks in

The first formal US-Mexico USMCA review round closed May 28-29 in Mexico City. Deputy USTR Jeffrey Gerrish led the US delegation (Greer did not personally attend); Marcelo Ebrard led for Mexico. Three core agenda blocks: automotive rules of origin, §232 steel/aluminum derivative boundary conditions, economic security — plus a scope expansion covering medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetic-products regulatory compatibility. Round 2 scheduled June 16-17 in Washington, adding agriculture and 'level playing field' topics. Round 3 set for the week of July 20 in Mexico City — placed four days before the §301 16-economy action target of July 24. Canada absent from this bilateral track.

CIT strikes down §122 — CAFC administrative stay keeps collection in place pending appeal

On May 7, 2026, the US Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 that Proclamation 11012 — the Trump administration's February 20 implementation of a 10% global surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 — is unlawful. Reason: the statutory prerequisite of a 'large and serious balance-of-payments deficit' was not satisfied. Three plaintiffs (Burlap & Barrel Inc., Basic Fun Inc., State of Washington) received a permanent injunction. On May 12, the Federal Circuit (CAFC) issued an administrative stay of the CIT injunction pending appeal — meaning §122 continues to be collected from all other importers. On May 20, the CIT denied the government's separate motion for a further stay. The CAFC merits opinion is most likely late 2026 (standard 3-9 month appellate cadence after oral argument). Practically: §122 is judicially live limbo through §301's July 24 takeover.

Greer + Ebrard joint statement: sector-by-sector USMCA bilateral, first formal round in Mexico City week of May 25

On April 20, 2026, USTR Jamieson Greer and Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard issued a joint statement directing teams to advance technical work on economic security, complementary trade actions, strengthened rules of origin for key industrial goods, and collaboration on critical minerals. President Sheinbaum publicly framed Mexico's objective: a specialized steel/aluminum/autos agreement before the trilateral review concludes. Ebrard described the negotiating posture as 'sector by sector,' targeting reduced extra-regional dependence — particularly the 85%+ Asian import share in semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and electronics. The first formal bilateral negotiating round is scheduled for the week of May 25, 2026 in Mexico City. USTR has signaled separately that existing US §232 / §301 / §122 tariffs on Mexico-origin goods stay in place during the negotiation window.

CBP launches CAPE Phase 1: consolidated IEEPA refund process for duties paid Apr 2025 – Feb 2026

CBP issued CSMS #68315804 on April 10 confirming that Phase 1 of the Consolidated Adjustment for Prior Entries (CAPE) refund process launched April 20, 2026. The mechanism mass-processes accepted entry summaries by recalculating duties as if IEEPA tariffs were never owed; interest is computed under 19 CFR 24.36. The refund channel exists because the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs in Learning Resources v. Trump (Feb 20, 2026, 6-3 ruling). CBP follow-up CSMS dated April 13 detailed the entry-summary recalculation logic. Importers do not have to file entry-by-entry; CAPE consolidates the refund.

CBAM Q1 2026 certificate price confirmed at €75.36/tCO₂

European Commission publishes the first quarterly CBAM price on April 7: €75.36/tCO₂. Combined with the 2.5% 2026 adjustment factor, real cost per tonne of imported steel is approximately €3.77. Q2/Q3/Q4 prices scheduled for July 6, October 5, January 4 2027.

§232 imposes 100% on patented pharma (15% Switzerland)

White House signs §232 proclamation on April 2. 100% ad valorem on patented drugs + APIs. Switzerland preferential tier at 15%. Generics and biosimilars fully exempt. Effective July 31 for 17 Annex III companies; September 29 for others.

§232 restructured: derivatives now pay full customs value (was metal-content)

April 2 proclamation raises Annex I-A primary metals to 50% ad valorem, Annex I-B derivatives to 25% on full customs value (no more metal-content split). UK origin qualifies for 25%/15% tiers with 95% melt-and-pour rule. Products with ≤15% metal content fully exempt. Quarterly inclusion process terminated.

PRC State Council Order No. 834 — China's first dedicated supply-chain security framework

On March 31, 2026, China's State Council promulgated Order No. 834 — the Provisions on the Security of Industrial and Supply Chains (产业链和供应链安全条例) — the PRC's first dedicated framework regulation for industrial and supply-chain security. The order, jointly enforced by MOFCOM and MIIT, provides the legal basis for sanctioning foreign companies, applies a 50% Rule for products incorporating controlled components, and embeds extraterritorial jurisdiction under the October 2025 export-control framework (extraterritorial enforcement deferred until November 2026). Effective May 1, 2026. The order serves as China's structural response to US trade-tool escalation through 2026 — paralleling §301 / §232 / IEEPA on the PRC retaliatory side.

USTR Greer + Mexico's Ebrard formally launch bilateral USMCA pre-review track

On March 18, 2026, USTR Jamieson Greer met Mexico's Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard in Washington to formally open bilateral USMCA review discussions, ahead of the July 1, 2026 first joint review. The published agenda: increasing US and Mexican production, limiting non-market inputs into North American supply chains, and identifying gaps in key supply chains. Canada was not included in this bilateral track — the meeting reads as a US-MX positioning channel rather than a trilateral preparatory.

USTR launches §301 investigations of 16 economies on structural excess capacity

USTR initiates Section 301 investigations on March 11, 2026 covering 16 economies (China, EU, SG, CH, NO, ID, MY, KH, TH, KR, VN, TW, BD, MX, JP, IN) and 21 industrial sectors including steel, aluminum, autos, batteries, chemicals, electronics, semiconductors, ships, solar, robotics. Comment deadline April 15; hearings May 5, 2026.

PRC expands rare-earth export licensing — samarium/gadolinium/lutetium compounds added January 1

Effective January 1, 2026, China's updated Import-Export Licensing Catalogue added samarium, gadolinium, and lutetium compounds — plus silver — to the rare-earth and strategic-materials export licensing list. Mechanism is licensing, not embargo — buyers can still source these materials, but only through suppliers holding valid MOFCOM export licenses. Administered jointly by MOFCOM and MIIT. The expansion follows the October 2025 framework that introduced extraterritorial jurisdiction and the '50% Rule' for products containing controlled components (extraterritorial enforcement delayed until November 2026). Previously controlled rare earths include yttrium, scandium, neodymium, indium, dysprosium, gallium, and germanium.

Mexico expands tariffs to 1,463 lines from Jan 1 2026 (up to 50%)

Mexican Senate approves the General Import and Export Tax Law amendment on December 10 2025; effective January 1 2026. Tariff coverage expands from the 155 textile lines of December 2024 to 1,463 lines across steel, aluminum, autos, footwear, appliances, plastics, toys, glass. Top rates: autos 50%, footwear 35%, steel/aluminum 25%.

Mexico Dec 2024 textile tariff sunset — tariffs revert, IMMEX ban continues

The temporary textile tariffs (15-35% on 155 HS lines in Chapters 61, 62) introduced by the December 19 2024 decree expired on April 23 2026 as scheduled. Most affected lines now fall under the December 2025 legislative package that entered force January 1 2026 — so apparel rates remain elevated, just on a different legal basis. The IMMEX prohibition on HS Chapters 61, 62, 63 (plus subheadings 9404.40, 9404.90) is a permanent amendment to the IMMEX Decree and is NOT subject to sunset.

Mexico Dec 19 2024 decree: 155 textile lines 15-35%, IMMEX prohibited for Ch 61/62/63

Sheinbaum's first decree, published in the DOF evening edition: 155 HS lines of textiles and apparel hit with 15-35% duties (effective Dec 20 2024 through April 23 2026). Simultaneous IMMEX amendment: HS Chapters 61, 62, 63 plus subheadings 9404.40 and 9404.90 prohibited from IMMEX — 302 tariff items moved from Annex II-C to Annex I.

CBAM Authorized Declarant registration deadline (March 31 2026)

From March 31 2026 every importer of CBAM-covered goods into the EU must hold Authorized CBAM Declarant status. Each shipment requires verified facility-level embedded-emissions data. Non-compliant shipments face entry rejection.