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Regulation (EU) 2026/1384, published in the Official Journal around June 26, 2026, replaces the 2018-era steel safeguard (expired June 30) with a permanent mechanism applicable from July 1, 2026. The annual duty-free tariff-rate quota is set at 18,345,922 tonnes — a 47% cut versus the 2024 quota level, benchmarked to a 13% import share of 2024 EU consumption — and the over-quota tariff doubles from 25% to 50%. Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1457 (adopted June 29, OJ June 30, applying July 1 through December 31, 2026) allocates country-specific quotas across 26 product categories: roughly half the quota (~9.17M t) is reserved for FTA partners, countries with a ≥5% import share in 2022-2024 receive country-specific quotas, and the remainder runs MFN first-come-first-served. A melt-and-pour origin declaration obligation (Mill Test Certificate documentation) applies from July 1, 2026, and from October 1, 2027 that data feeds quota allocation — designed to block third-country transshipment circumvention aimed at Chinese overcapacity. The EEA (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway) is excluded from scope and Russia is excluded via the sanctions ban; otherwise the measure applies to all third countries including FTA partners, administered quarterly with within-year carryover but no cross-year carryover. For non-FTA exporters including China this is the tightest EU steel access regime since 2018.
TariffsSafeguards
Coverage: Export country All → Import country EU · HS 72 · 73
The EU's tariff commitments under the August 21, 2025 'Joint Statement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade' completed their legislative path: European Parliament/Council provisional agreement May 20, 2026, Council final adoption June 25, publication in the Official Journal June 30, application from July 1, 2026. The main regulation eliminates all EU tariffs on US industrial goods and grants TRQ/reduced-duty preferential access for certain US seafood and non-sensitive agricultural products — EU importers save roughly €5bn a year in duties — applying through December 31, 2029, with a built-in import-surge safeguard and a suspension mechanism if the US fails to honor its side. A second regulation, (EU) 2026/1461 (signed June 25), extends MFN zero duty on lobster including processed lobster (CN 1605 30 90) to July 31, 2030, with refunds retroactive to August 1, 2025. The US quid pro quo is a 15% tariff cap on most EU goods including autos, and zero or near-zero rates on aircraft, generics, and natural resources. In early May the US had threatened 25% on EU autos if the package was not ratified before July 4; with the July 1 application, the transatlantic tariff war formally de-escalates into an implementation phase.
TariffsProcedures & reviewsSafeguards
Coverage: Export country US → Import country EU · HS All
China's MOFCOM moved from general endorsement to formal confirmation of the US-China Board of Trade. At the June 25 regular presser, MOFCOM said the two sides 'have agreed to establish a Board of Trade, under which cooperation such as reciprocal tariff reductions will be discussed'; working teams continue consultations on the tariff-reduction framework, and on Boeing aircraft and US agricultural purchases both sides will 'encourage and guide' enterprises to expand trade. At the July 2 presser, spokesperson He Yadong said both sides 'agreed in principle to include relevant agricultural products under the reciprocal tariff reduction framework,' with purchases based on 'actual demand and market conditions.' Per USTR docket commentary, the mechanism contours involve identifying up to roughly $30 billion of tariff relief each way on 'non-sensitive' goods (MFN or lower rates), with textiles reportedly excluded. Background commitments from the May 14-15 Beijing summit: 200 Boeing aircraft (option to 750) and $17 billion per year in agricultural purchases plus a 25 million metric ton soybean commitment (~$27 billion per year total). USTR comment docket USTR-2026-0430 closes July 10, with rebuttals due July 27. Talks appear to remain at working-team/videoconference level — no Chinese delegation visit to Washington was confirmed in the window.
TariffsProcedures & reviews
Coverage: Export country US · CN → Import country US · CN · HS 02 · 07 · 08 · 10 · 12 · 88
MOFCOM Announcement No. 24 of 2026 (June 24) published the Working Measures for Industrial and Supply Chain Security Investigations — the implementing procedures under State Council Order No. 834 (effective May 1, 2026). The measures establish a §301-style investigative mechanism on the Chinese side, aimed at foreign countries, regions, or international organizations that impose discriminatory prohibitions or restrictions on Chinese supply chains, with legal basis in the National Security Law, Foreign Relations Law, Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, and Foreign Trade Law. Investigation tools include questioning, document seizure and copying, public solicitation of leads, questionnaires, technical evaluation, hearings, and on-site investigation; Chinese firms can petition MOFCOM in writing with evidence via a private-complaint channel. The outcome menu spans prohibiting or restricting imports/exports of goods, technology and services trade, a novel 'special fees' instrument, and Anti-Foreign-Sanctions-Law sanctions. As a companion enforcement signal, MOFCOM Announcement No. 26 (June 24, effective July 1) created a whistleblower reporting-and-reward mechanism for strategic-minerals export-control violations — unlicensed exports, disguising controlled items as components, third-country transshipment, and providing logistics, customs, e-commerce or financial services to unlawful exports. On June 18, the chairman of a major Chinese precision-optics company was placed under compulsory measures by Shanghai Customs for falsely declaring germanium-containing lenses as 'ordinary optical glass'.
TariffsProcedures & reviewsExport controls
Coverage: Export country CN → Import country All · HS All
MOFCOM Announcement No. 23 of 2026 (June 22, immediate effect) added 10 US entities to China's export control list: MP Materials Corp, USA Rare Earth, Aveox, Red Cat Holdings, Teal Drones, IMSAR, Jaia Robotics, Ball Aerospace & Technologies, Oshkosh Defense, and L3Harris Maritime Services. Chinese exporters are prohibited from exporting any dual-use items to them; overseas organizations and individuals anywhere are barred from transferring China-origin dual-use items to them; ongoing transactions must stop immediately, with case-by-case MOFCOM approval possible for 'genuine necessity'. It is the first-ever use of the export-control-list instrument against US rare-earth producers — MP Materials fell roughly 13% in June. Beijing framed the action as retaliation for the June 8 US expansion of the DoD 'Chinese Military Companies' (1260H) list. Same day, China's Ministry of Finance banned government procurement of products manufactured by 46 US defense-linked companies (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Missiles & Defense, General Atomics, General Dynamics Land Systems, Boeing Defense, Anduril et al.), explicitly excluding products of US-invested enterprises in China — 56 US entities hit in a single day. Notably, both actions were decoupled from the §301 forced-labor track and tied to the 1260H list, preserving the Board of Trade channel; no new Unreliable Entity List additions in this round.
TariffsExport controls
Coverage: Export country CN → Import country US · HS 28 · 85 · 90
Round 2 of US-Mexico USMCA bilateral negotiations ran June 15-17, 2026 in Washington DC over three days — the round had previously been flagged as June 16-17, and Ebrard's delegation worked June 15-18 including side-meetings. A joint Greer-Ebrard statement marked the conclusion. Progress reported: advanced rules of origin for certain industrial goods plus 'economic security' (limiting China's benefits from USMCA access); conceptual discussions begun on agriculture, labor and environment; steel/aluminum/autos trade discussed; trade-remedy cases addressed, including new duties on Mexican tomatoes and the active strawberry investigation; and agreement to establish a committee reviewing USMCA Chapter 12 (Sectoral Annexes) for regulatory compatibility. The hardest fault line is the US seasonal-produce TRQ demand — Ebrard publicly stated Mexico will not accept seasonal restrictions and would source agricultural imports elsewhere. Greer: 'I think we probably will not resolve all the issues by July 1.' Round 3 is confirmed for the week of July 20, 2026 in Mexico City per Greer's July 1 statement; Greer and Ebrard also met separately on June 19.
TariffsProcedures & reviews
Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · MX · HS 72 · 76 · 87 · 84 · 85
On June 15, 2026 the US Supreme Court denied certiorari in HMTX Industries v. United States, leaving intact the Federal Circuit's September 25, 2025 ruling that upheld the §301 List 3 (~$200bn) and List 4A (~$120bn+) China tariffs imposed via USTR's §307 modification authority. The denial definitively ends the 8-year consolidated 'In re Section 301 Cases' refund litigation — no refunds for the thousands of plaintiff importers. List 3 duties at 25% and List 4A duties at 7.5% are now litigation-proof. The §307 modification authority — the same authority underpinning the pending 60-economy forced-labor and 16-economy excess-capacity §301 actions — carries appellate blessing.
TariffsProcedures & reviews
Coverage: Export country CN → Import country US · HS All
Verified 2026-10-08: §122 was 10% and expired 2026-07-24. Forced-labor §301 took effect 2026-07-24 at 10%–12.5%, with product exemptions and country-specific combined-rate rules.
TariffsProcedures & reviews
Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS All
In early June 2026, USTR published a Federal Register notice seeking public comment on the scope and operation of the US-China Board of Trade — the new bilateral institution announced at the May 14-15 Beijing summit. The mechanism is intended to operationalize ongoing dialogue on balanced and reciprocal trade, including identification of non-sensitive goods that can deliver benefits for US farmers, ranchers, fishermen, small businesses, manufacturers, and workers. Public comment deadline: July 10, 2026. China's MOFCOM spokesperson He Yongqian publicly endorsed the Board of Trade as the preferred negotiation venue, contrasting it with the forced-labor §301 tariff action which MOFCOM opposes. The Board of Trade is the structural complement to the Board of Investment also established at the Beijing summit.
TariffsProcedures & reviews
Coverage: Export country CN → Import country US · HS All
Verified 2026-10-08: §122 was 10% and expired 2026-07-24. Forced-labor §301 took effect 2026-07-24 at 10%–12.5%, with product exemptions and country-specific combined-rate rules.
TariffsProcedures & reviews
Coverage: Export country CN · IN · JP · KR · VN · MX · BR · EU · ID · PK · EC · CA · BD · KH · TH · MY · SG · TW → Import country US · HS 61 · 62 · 63 · 64 · 84 · 85 · 87 · 03 · 04 · 07 · 08 · 27 · 85
Correction of the earlier record: the Brazil §301 investigation was initiated on July 17, 2025 (FRN 2025-13498) — not in June 2026. What happened on June 1, 2026 was the determination plus proposed action (FRN 2026-11158, published June 4): USTR found Brazil's acts, policies, and practices on digital trade and electronic payments, preferential tariffs, anti-corruption, intellectual property, ethanol market access, and illegal deforestation to be actionable, and proposed an additional 25% ad valorem tariff on certain Brazilian goods — coverage per commentary includes footwear, apparel, and travel goods alongside traditional exports such as coffee, iron ore, wood, pulp, meat, sugar, and ethanol. In-window process: hearing-appearance requests were due June 22; public comments were due July 1, 2026; USTR confirmed a public hearing Monday July 6 through Tuesday July 7, 2026, 10:00 am ET at the USITC. The statutory deadline for responsive action is July 15, 2026 — one year from initiation — making this plausibly the first new §301 tariff to land in July.
Proclamation 11032, 'Further Adjusting the Tariff Regimes for Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper,' was signed June 1, 2026, with changes effective June 8, 2026 (the reduced tiers run through December 31, 2027). The §232 derivative rate on agricultural equipment — combines, harvesters and similar machinery — is cut from 25% to 15%. Residential-use HVAC systems and components are added to the temporarily-reduced 15% derivative category, and the 15% category is further expanded to mobile industrial equipment (bulldozers, forklifts) when imported from trade-deal countries. A new incentive tier sets a 10% duty rate for capital equipment with at least 85% US-melted-and-poured steel and aluminum content. Under the recalibrated regime, Japan and Korea §232 imports are effectively capped at a 15% total-duty outcome. Duties apply on the full customs value of the goods.
Tariffs
Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS 72 · 73 · 74 · 76 · 84 · 85
The first formal US-Mexico USMCA review round closed May 28-29 in Mexico City. Deputy USTR Jeffrey Gerrish led the US delegation (Greer did not personally attend); Marcelo Ebrard led for Mexico. Three core agenda blocks: automotive rules of origin, §232 steel/aluminum derivative boundary conditions, economic security — plus a scope expansion covering medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetic-products regulatory compatibility. Round 2 scheduled June 16-17 in Washington, adding agriculture and 'level playing field' topics. Round 3 set for the week of July 20 in Mexico City — placed four days before the §301 16-economy action target of July 24. Canada absent from this bilateral track.
TariffsProcedures & reviews
Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · MX · HS 72 · 76 · 87 · 30 · 33
Verified 2026-10-08: §122 was 10% and expired 2026-07-24. Forced-labor §301 took effect 2026-07-24 at 10%–12.5%, with product exemptions and country-specific combined-rate rules.
TariffsProcedures & reviews
Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS All
On April 20, 2026, USTR Jamieson Greer and Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard issued a joint statement directing teams to advance technical work on economic security, complementary trade actions, strengthened rules of origin for key industrial goods, and collaboration on critical minerals. President Sheinbaum publicly framed Mexico's objective: a specialized steel/aluminum/autos agreement before the trilateral review concludes. Ebrard described the negotiating posture as 'sector by sector,' targeting reduced extra-regional dependence — particularly the 85%+ Asian import share in semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and electronics. The first formal bilateral negotiating round is scheduled for the week of May 25, 2026 in Mexico City. USTR has signaled separately that existing US §232 / §301 / §122 tariffs on Mexico-origin goods stay in place during the negotiation window.
TariffsProcedures & reviews
Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · MX · HS 72 · 76 · 87 · 85 · 30
Verified 2026-10-08: §122 was 10% and expired 2026-07-24. Forced-labor §301 took effect 2026-07-24 at 10%–12.5%, with product exemptions and country-specific combined-rate rules.
TariffsProcedures & reviews
Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS All
European Commission publishes the first quarterly CBAM price on April 7: €75.36/tCO₂. Combined with the 2.5% 2026 adjustment factor, real cost per tonne of imported steel is approximately €3.77. Q2/Q3/Q4 prices scheduled for July 6, October 5, January 4 2027.
Other
Coverage: Export country All → Import country EU · HS 25 · 27 · 28 · 31 · 72 · 73 · 76
Verified 2026-10-08. The earlier article incorrectly assigned Ireland a uniform 100% duty. That claim and the relocation, investment and consumer-price conclusions built on it are withdrawn. Unverified trade figures, market moves and company outcomes have been removed.
The April 2 proclamation covers patented pharmaceuticals and associated ingredients listed in Annex I. Clause 3(a) sets a default 100% rate. Clause 3(c) gives the EU, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland and Liechtenstein a 15% country tier unless a lower clause 3 rate applies. Ireland is in the EU; the proclamation therefore does not support a blanket 100% rate for Irish products. Ireland and Switzerland belong to the same country tier.
Tariffs
Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS 30
April 2 proclamation raises Annex I-A primary metals to 50% ad valorem, Annex I-B derivatives to 25% on full customs value (no more metal-content split). UK origin qualifies for 25%/15% tiers with 95% melt-and-pour rule. Products with ≤15% metal content fully exempt. Quarterly inclusion process terminated.
Tariffs
Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS 72 · 73 · 74 · 76 · 84 · 85 · 87 · 94
On March 31, 2026, China's State Council promulgated Order No. 834 — the Provisions on the Security of Industrial and Supply Chains — the PRC's first dedicated framework regulation for industrial and supply-chain security. The order, jointly enforced by MOFCOM and MIIT, provides the legal basis for sanctioning foreign companies, applies a 50% Rule for products incorporating controlled components, and embeds extraterritorial jurisdiction under the October 2025 export-control framework (extraterritorial enforcement deferred until November 2026). Effective May 1, 2026. The order serves as China's structural response to US trade-tool escalation through 2026 — paralleling §301 / §232 / IEEPA on the PRC retaliatory side.
TariffsExport controls
Coverage: Export country CN → Import country All · HS All