Every change that moves a number, dated and sourced.

USMCA first joint review: US declines renewal, triggering annual reviews and a July 1, 2036 termination backstop #

On July 1, 2026 the three USMCA parties held the mandatory first joint review, conducted virtually under Article 34.7. USTR Ambassador Greer's same-day statement: 'The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form. As a result, the USMCA is not renewed.' The US refusal blocks the automatic 16-year extension to 2042 and shifts the agreement into annual joint reviews each July 1; absent a future consensus to extend, the USMCA terminates July 1, 2036 under Article 34.7's sunset mechanics (the 2036 date is drawn from law-firm analyses, not the USTR statement itself). Mexico (President Sheinbaum) and Canada had both submitted written support for the 16-year extension, having floated an extension to 2042 with 6-year reviews — rejected by the US; Economy Secretary Ebrard has floated a fallback of 10-year extension terms. The agreement remains fully in force meanwhile: tariff preferences, rules of origin and dispute settlement are unchanged, and roughly 85% of Mexican exports to the US still enter tariff-free under USMCA compliance. Mexico's next-phase priority is negotiating down US §232 steel/aluminum/auto tariffs, while Canada's retaliatory tariffs (~C$15.6bn on US steel/aluminum plus autos) remain in place.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · MX · CA · HS All

• Official source: USTR — Ambassador Greer Issues Statement on the USMCA Joint Review
• Source: White & Case — USMCA 2026 Joint Review: US declines to extend, triggering annual reviews
• Source: CBC — U.S. declines to extend CUSMA trade deal
• Source: Mexico News Daily — USMCA 'remains in force,' Ebrard says

US-Mexico USMCA bilateral round 1 concludes — three-round schedule locks in #

The first formal US-Mexico USMCA review round closed May 28-29 in Mexico City. Deputy USTR Jeffrey Gerrish led the US delegation (Greer did not personally attend); Marcelo Ebrard led for Mexico. Three core agenda blocks: automotive rules of origin, §232 steel/aluminum derivative boundary conditions, economic security — plus a scope expansion covering medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetic-products regulatory compatibility. Round 2 scheduled June 16-17 in Washington, adding agriculture and 'level playing field' topics. Round 3 set for the week of July 20 in Mexico City — placed four days before the §301 16-economy action target of July 24. Canada absent from this bilateral track.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · MX · HS 72 · 76 · 87 · 30 · 33

• Official source: USTR — US and Mexico Conclude First Bilateral Round
• Source: CGTN — Mexico US conclude first round USMCA talks
• Source: Washington Trade & Tariff Letter — Canada track lags

Greer + Ebrard joint statement: sector-by-sector USMCA bilateral, first formal round in Mexico City week of May 25 #

On April 20, 2026, USTR Jamieson Greer and Mexican Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard issued a joint statement directing teams to advance technical work on economic security, complementary trade actions, strengthened rules of origin for key industrial goods, and collaboration on critical minerals. President Sheinbaum publicly framed Mexico's objective: a specialized steel/aluminum/autos agreement before the trilateral review concludes. Ebrard described the negotiating posture as 'sector by sector,' targeting reduced extra-regional dependence — particularly the 85%+ Asian import share in semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and electronics. The first formal bilateral negotiating round is scheduled for the week of May 25, 2026 in Mexico City. USTR has signaled separately that existing US §232 / §301 / §122 tariffs on Mexico-origin goods stay in place during the negotiation window.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · MX · HS 72 · 76 · 87 · 85 · 30

• Official source: USTR — Joint Statement Greer + Ebrard
• Source: Rio Times — USMCA formal negotiations May 25
• Source: DBBNW — Mexico seeks early steel and auto trade deal with US
• Source: Steel Market Update — USTR says steel/auto tariffs on Mexico will remain

§232 restructured: derivatives now pay full customs value (was metal-content) #

April 2 proclamation raises Annex I-A primary metals to 50% ad valorem, Annex I-B derivatives to 25% on full customs value (no more metal-content split). UK origin qualifies for 25%/15% tiers with 95% melt-and-pour rule. Products with ≤15% metal content fully exempt. Quarterly inclusion process terminated.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS 72 · 73 · 74 · 76 · 84 · 85 · 87 · 94

• Official source: White House Proclamation
• Official source: CBP §232 FAQ

PRC State Council Order No. 834 — China's first dedicated supply-chain security framework #

On March 31, 2026, China's State Council promulgated Order No. 834 — the Provisions on the Security of Industrial and Supply Chains — the PRC's first dedicated framework regulation for industrial and supply-chain security. The order, jointly enforced by MOFCOM and MIIT, provides the legal basis for sanctioning foreign companies, applies a 50% Rule for products incorporating controlled components, and embeds extraterritorial jurisdiction under the October 2025 export-control framework (extraterritorial enforcement deferred until November 2026). Effective May 1, 2026. The order serves as China's structural response to US trade-tool escalation through 2026 — paralleling §301 / §232 / IEEPA on the PRC retaliatory side.

Coverage: Export country CN → Import country All · HS All

• Source: White & Case — China extraterritorial jurisdiction and 50% Rule
• Source: Andersen Institute — China's Export Control Architecture
• Source: China Briefing — Export Controls overview