Every change that moves a number, dated and sourced.

US changes Canadian products covered by the additional 50% Section 338 duty #

The October 23, 2026 proclamation removes listed plywood, paper and machinery products from Canada's additional 50% Section 338 duty and adds listed valves, carpets and other goods from October 30, 2026. The duty applies to covered goods regardless of USMCA origin status and in addition to applicable Section 232 tariffs.

Coverage: Export country CA → Import country US · HS 12 · 18 · 32 · 33 · 34 · 38 · 39 · 40 · 44 · 48 · 57 · 84 · 89 · 90 · 95

• Official source: White House — October 23 proclamation modifying Canadian Section 338 product coverage
• Official source: White House — Annex II, HTSUS subheadings removed from and added to Section 338 coverage
• Official source: White House — Fact sheet on Canadian Section 338 product changes and USMCA treatment

USMCA first joint review: US declines renewal, triggering annual reviews and a July 1, 2036 termination backstop #

On July 1, 2026 the three USMCA parties held the mandatory first joint review, conducted virtually under Article 34.7. USTR Ambassador Greer's same-day statement: 'The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form. As a result, the USMCA is not renewed.' The US refusal blocks the automatic 16-year extension to 2042 and shifts the agreement into annual joint reviews each July 1; absent a future consensus to extend, the USMCA terminates July 1, 2036 under Article 34.7's sunset mechanics (the 2036 date is drawn from law-firm analyses, not the USTR statement itself). Mexico (President Sheinbaum) and Canada had both submitted written support for the 16-year extension, having floated an extension to 2042 with 6-year reviews — rejected by the US; Economy Secretary Ebrard has floated a fallback of 10-year extension terms. The agreement remains fully in force meanwhile: tariff preferences, rules of origin and dispute settlement are unchanged, and roughly 85% of Mexican exports to the US still enter tariff-free under USMCA compliance. Mexico's next-phase priority is negotiating down US §232 steel/aluminum/auto tariffs, while Canada's retaliatory tariffs (~C$15.6bn on US steel/aluminum plus autos) remain in place.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · MX · CA · HS All

• Official source: USTR — Ambassador Greer Issues Statement on the USMCA Joint Review
• Source: White & Case — USMCA 2026 Joint Review: US declines to extend, triggering annual reviews
• Source: CBC — U.S. declines to extend CUSMA trade deal
• Source: Mexico News Daily — USMCA 'remains in force,' Ebrard says

PRC State Council Order No. 834 — China's first dedicated supply-chain security framework #

On March 31, 2026, China's State Council promulgated Order No. 834 — the Provisions on the Security of Industrial and Supply Chains — the PRC's first dedicated framework regulation for industrial and supply-chain security. The order, jointly enforced by MOFCOM and MIIT, provides the legal basis for sanctioning foreign companies, applies a 50% Rule for products incorporating controlled components, and embeds extraterritorial jurisdiction under the October 2025 export-control framework (extraterritorial enforcement deferred until November 2026). Effective May 1, 2026. The order serves as China's structural response to US trade-tool escalation through 2026 — paralleling §301 / §232 / IEEPA on the PRC retaliatory side.

Coverage: Export country CN → Import country All · HS All

• Source: White & Case — China extraterritorial jurisdiction and 50% Rule
• Source: Andersen Institute — China's Export Control Architecture
• Source: China Briefing — Export Controls overview