Every change that moves a number, dated and sourced.

Pending review · §122 / §301 · 2026-10-08 #

Verified 2026-10-08: §122 was 10% and expired 2026-07-24. Forced-labor §301 took effect 2026-07-24 at 10%–12.5%, with product exemptions and country-specific combined-rate rules.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS All

• Official source: CBP CSMS 67844987
• Official source: CBP CSMS 69326983

§232 · EU / Ireland / Switzerland · 15% · 2026-10-08 #

Verified 2026-10-08. The earlier article incorrectly assigned Ireland a uniform 100% duty. That claim and the relocation, investment and consumer-price conclusions built on it are withdrawn. Unverified trade figures, market moves and company outcomes have been removed. The April 2 proclamation covers patented pharmaceuticals and associated ingredients listed in Annex I. Clause 3(a) sets a default 100% rate. Clause 3(c) gives the EU, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland and Liechtenstein a 15% country tier unless a lower clause 3 rate applies. Ireland is in the EU; the proclamation therefore does not support a blanket 100% rate for Irish products. Ireland and Switzerland belong to the same country tier.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · HS 30

• Official source: White House clauses 3–5; verified 2026-10-08

PRC State Council Order No. 834 — China's first dedicated supply-chain security framework #

On March 31, 2026, China's State Council promulgated Order No. 834 — the Provisions on the Security of Industrial and Supply Chains — the PRC's first dedicated framework regulation for industrial and supply-chain security. The order, jointly enforced by MOFCOM and MIIT, provides the legal basis for sanctioning foreign companies, applies a 50% Rule for products incorporating controlled components, and embeds extraterritorial jurisdiction under the October 2025 export-control framework (extraterritorial enforcement deferred until November 2026). Effective May 1, 2026. The order serves as China's structural response to US trade-tool escalation through 2026 — paralleling §301 / §232 / IEEPA on the PRC retaliatory side.

Coverage: Export country CN → Import country All · HS All

• Source: White & Case — China extraterritorial jurisdiction and 50% Rule
• Source: Andersen Institute — China's Export Control Architecture
• Source: China Briefing — Export Controls overview

USTR Greer + Mexico's Ebrard formally launch bilateral USMCA pre-review track #

On March 18, 2026, USTR Jamieson Greer met Mexico's Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard in Washington to formally open bilateral USMCA review discussions, ahead of the July 1, 2026 first joint review. The published agenda: increasing US and Mexican production, limiting non-market inputs into North American supply chains, and identifying gaps in key supply chains. Canada was not included in this bilateral track — the meeting reads as a US-MX positioning channel rather than a trilateral preparatory.

Coverage: Export country All → Import country US · MX · HS All

• Official source: USTR press release — US-Mexico bilateral discussions next steps
• Source: Brookings — The US has formally started joint review of USMCA
• Official source: CRS — USMCA Joint Review process and role of Congress